PREDICTIONS

It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future. – Yogi Berra

I’m not sure if I like Yogi Berra quotes more because they always make me smile or if it’s because he was a baseball icon, either way I enjoy them. The quote above has so many applications as it seems predictions are constantly being made. Of course, the most recent headlines are all about the election. It wasn’t predicted by many that Trump would become our next President, but he will be. In a previous letter, which you can access , I addressed how elections have historically effected the markets.

The take-away from this letter is to remind you, no matter how you feel about the election, to stick with your overall financial plan. Focus on what you can control, not what you can’t. There are many things related to financial planning and investing that we do have control over and below is a list of a few:

- Is your investment strategy in line with your financial goals and helping you achieve them?

- Are you properly diversified? (for my clients this often goes beyond traditional stocks and bonds)

- Are you saving enough and in the right places?

- Are you taking advantage of tax planning opportunities?

This is just a start to many items that can benefit us financially that are within our control. Since there is plenty you can do, worrying about what you can’t control won’t likely provide any benefit. 

Just for fun, below are a few predictions that never came true yet likely influenced people to make changes to their investment strategy that didn’t prove beneficial. Note that all of the individuals below are experts in their field and I respect what they do, I’m just illustrating the point. 

Harry Dent, noted economist who focuses on demographics, predicted in 2006 that the Dow would hit 40,000 by 2010. Then in 2011 predicted the DOW could crash to 3,000 in 2013. Obviously neither came true.

Jim Cramer, stock trader and host of Mad Money. On 3/11/08 was asked by a viewer if they should be concerned with Bear Stearns, to which he replied, NO, NO, NO! Five days later JP Morgan purchased Bear Stearns for $2/share, it had been $60/share when Jim said not to be concerned.

In 2014, 67 economists polled by Bloomberg asked if interest rates would go up that year, all 67 said they would. They were all wrong. 

I could go on and on with various stocks, gold, oil, and other predictions, but I think you get the point.

Advisory services offered through Arbor Point Advisors. Securities offered through Securities America Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. Arbor Point and Securities America are separate companies. CA Insurance #0E88557